How can technology help to mitigate Black Sky Hazards?
“零压力”播客主持人海伦·沙曼讨论了世界如何需要比现在更好地准备应对一场严重的危机, inter-related disruption to our utilities, communications and services: otherwise known as a ‘Black Sky Event’.
It’s not a matter of if but when our world will experience a ‘Black Sky Event’, 由于人为攻击或自然灾害，一项关键基础设施出现故障，从而引发瘫痪灾难的复杂连锁反应.
这是来自《十大正规博彩网站排名》播客第二季第二集的主要嘉宾的强硬言论, 由英国首位宇航员海伦·沙曼博士主持，伦敦帝国理工学院和十大正规博彩网站排名公司承办.
Avi Schnurr is the CEO and President of Electric Infrastructure Security (EIS), an organisation that researches the issue, and educates and trains senior executives, key government and non-governmental organisation stakeholders across all sectors.
In the podcast, 阿维告诉海伦，在接下来的几十年里，我们这个高度互联的世界有“100%的可能性”会经历一次“黑天事件”.
He advocates the use of older technologies such as radio, 再加上新的发展，如人工智能，用于建立应急通信和混乱管理系统，供所有部门的决策者与自己的系统和知识相结合, 这样他们就知道该做什么，并能共同应对我们未来可能面临的挑战.
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Our world: an integrated organism that lacks an immune system
阿维把当今世界紧密结合的工业社会比作一个有机系统, where each part of the system operates only if all the others are functioning. That integration is great for efficiency purposes, he says, 但我们还没有开发出存在于生物有机体中的相应免疫系统, making us extremely vulnerable to external threats.
And whereas biological organisms improve and develop resilience through evolution, that only works through a mass die-off, a prospect which the human race simply cannot accept.
“The infrastructures that we know and love, that keep us alive and happy, 已经如此紧密地交织在一起，以至于任何一个基础设施的大规模中断都可能切断将它们联系在一起的链条, and you could have cascading failures,” he warns.
These threats can take many forms, both man-made and natural. 网络和勒索软件攻击或高度破坏性武器可以用来攻击基础设施. Natural threats include geomagnetic storms (such as seen in 1862 and 1921), asteroids, high-morbidity pandemics, earthquakes or even extreme weather events. 这些都可能造成严重破坏，也许首先会导致国家电网瘫痪. “Everything requires electricity,” says Avi, “因此，你会立即出现跨所有其他基础设施的级联故障.”
Regardless of which piece of infrastructure was hit first, 它仍然会产生影响其他因素的相同结果——互联网崩溃将影响金融市场，进而影响美国的电网, which watch the markets and bid to provide power, would become inoperable. It’s all a vicious cycle where electricity cannot be restored without water, fuel or transportation, and yet those other infrastructures would also not be operational.
But we do have straightforward solutions
It’s not all doom and gloom. Avi adds that there are some straightforward solutions available to us; it’s just that by and large we haven’t implemented them yet.
我们可以建立一个紧急通信系统，广泛部署到所有部门和领导人，并在私营部门相互连接, corporate and government spheres in each nation. 但它无法连接到国家电信系统，如果电网瘫痪，电信系统将崩溃.
Instead, Avi提倡使用无线电等技术作为混合能力的重要组成部分, 以及一个混乱的管理系统，这意味着决策者在危机的各个阶段都有一些他们必须做的事情.
“由于大量的相互依赖和将在任何地方发生的破坏，混乱的程度将使态势感知很难做到,” Avi explains. “We need some machine assistance,” he adds. “我们需要一个非常好的混乱管理系统……提前准备好.”
问题是，我们能否创造出与当前互联互通类似的数字孪生体, 或者我们是否提供一个共同的网络，将不同的参与者聚集在一起，而不让他们交出专有信息.
Ultimately, 而阿维·施努尔则欣赏海伦·沙曼的观点，即人类需要探索火星等其他星球，以确保人类的连续性, 他认为我们需要专注于保存和保护我们在地球上所拥有的东西.
“Earth is my favourite planet!” he says, “and sustaining human life on Earth is a huge priority.” We all need to be aware of the Black Sky Event issue, and discuss it to create a critical mass of opinion to push for change.
“We have the technology but not the willpower. Willpower comes from each and every one of us.”
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